Wednesday, November 12, 2014

Thurston @ Huron

Huron (10-1) is coming off of a 44 -27 victory over Trenton while Thurston (8-3) defeated Divine Child 37-17. These two teams met twice in the 1950's with Thurston winning once and the two teams tying the other.

Huron is riding an 8 game winning streak behind the big play ability of QB Matt Hartwick and WR Devin Collins. The Chief offense is capable of grinding things out with junior RB Jacob Fryer runnng behind a solid offensive line.

Last week Huron was lit up by Trenton through the air as the Trojans threw for over 300 yards. The Chiefs usually do just enough defensively to give their offense a chance to win. Chase McKay and Jon Krug have been steady all year along with LB Steele White.

Thurston comes into the game winning 7 straight and appear to be playing their best football of the season. The Eagles have a two-headed monster at RB with Chris Johnson and Laymon Giddings-Whatley. QB Travis Wessenberg is a 6-4, 195 lb senior capable of throwing the ball if the Eagles running game struggles.

The defense  which gives up about 16 ppg is led by Alonzo McKoy who had a huge game in the Eagles week 1 playoff victory over Mumford.

It's hard to believe that either of these teams are one win away from a birth in the state semi-finals. Both teams have been good enough defensively to put themselves potentially in a position to make it to Ford Field. Tough call here, but I will go with the home team. Prediction: Huron 23 Thurston 21

32 comments:

Anonymous said...

Your prediction is close to the neutral field prediction that Calpreps gave.

Thurston is athletic, but not terribly disciplined. They also play their home games on turf, which may not work well for them since they are coming onto a somewhat muddy, grass field and may not be able to rely so much on whatever team speed they do have. This isn't a slam dunk game, but I like Huron's chances in this one. Now I just hope the kids and coaches are as focused as they were last week.

Chris Schultz said...

I am a paid professional.

stosento said...

So, I decided to give my analysis of this game, which will be more focused strictly on statistics since I haven't been able to see Huron play. I'll do some deeper analysis of the schedules of both the teams and how they performed, and then a little analysis on the playoff teams they've played thus far. Part 1 will focus on Thurston, part 2 on Huron and prediction.(PPG = points per game, PA = points allowed)

Thurston
Average # wins of opponents - 4.54

Total PPG - 27
PPG against winning teams - 18

Total PA - 15
PA against winning teams - 22.6

Losses
Tecumseh (5-5) 28-18; Dearborn (6-4) 16-7; Dearborn Fordson (10-1) 34-6; games 2, 3, and 4 in the season.

Loss to Dearborn Fordson is understandable, they almost knocked off Cass Tech last week.
Dearborn loss is also understandable...they're a larger school that won some great games and only lost to good competition.
Tecumseh loss is...what? Really bad showing for them. Second most points allowed in the season.

Notable Wins
Detroit Mumford (6-4) PD 22-18; Dearborn Divine Child (7-4) D 37-17

These two playoff wins were the first wins for Thurston against a winning team this year.

Detroit Mumford was a solid team. They played a brutal regular season that consisted of 5 teams with winning records, and 3 of the 4 teams they played that didn't have winning records were 4-5. They stuck with the class A powerhouses Detroit Cass Tech and Detroit MLK really well. So Thurston winning this game shows they've come a long way since that Tecumseh loss.

DDC was iffy at best. They lost BADLY to a good Detroit Loyola team twice. Yes, Detroit Loyola is fantastic this year, but they lost 70-6 the second time around. Ouch. However, to be fair, Loyola has outscored their last 6 opponents (are you ready for this??) by a margin of 336-13. That's stupid. At least those 13 points were by DDC. Although I am sidetracked here, D7 finals will be Ishpheming - Detroit Loyola, and will be a helluva game to watch, people. Back to DDC. They lost badly to a 2-7 team early in the season in addition to the pair to Detroit Rolloverya Loyola and barely beat a couple of bad teams, so they were shaky. However, they knocked off a highly-ranked Allen Park team first round to get to Districts, so they put something together by the end of the year.

stosento said...

PART 2

Huron
Average # wins of opponent - 4.36

Total PPG - 31.45
PPG against winning teams - 30

Total PA - 15.6
PA against winning teams - 21.6

Losses
SMCC (10-1) 40-7; 3rd game of season. (I talk enough about SMCC, you know em)

Notable Wins
Grosse Ile (7-3) 35-0; Riverview (6-4) 24-20, PD 40-21; Trenton (7-4) D 44-27

The Grosse Ile win was fantastic. However, it was early in a season in which Grosse Ile kind of had to find themselves. Even so, 35-0 is commanding, and Huron did well. Riverview was decent this year, and beating a team by 19 that you only beat by 4 earlier in the year is a good sign.

Trenton lost to a trio of pretty decent class A schools in Wyandotte Roosevelt (7-2), Allen Park (8-1), and Brownstown Woodhaven (9-0). Trenton was a very meh school that lost to who they should have and beat who they should have. Were commanding in the middle of their schedule to some less than great teams, and then was winning less convincingly against some similarly less than great teams late in the season. Hard to judge this team, but I think they were only slightly better than Riverview.

Conclusion / Predictions
This one isn't easy. When I look at Huron, I look at the small margin between their total PPG and PPG against winning teams. They've been consistent pretty much all year and haven't lost to teams that they're not better than. Thurston lost to Tecumseh, which worries me the most. Furthermore, Thurston didn't beat a winning team until the playoffs. However, the losses to Dearborn and Dearborn Fordson are very understandable, and they beat a good team (Momford) and a team that just came off of a huge upset on the road (DDC). Huron hasn't faced the same level of competition thus far into the playoffs.

Thurston has been playing Class A competition almost all year, while Huron's been playing Class B schools, but beating them consistently. I see a hot Thurston squad coming to Huron and giving the Chiefs a scare...but my gut is telling me that Huron will win this game.

Huron 28 Thurston 27

Anonymous said...

Huron's offense has been lighting it up the last few weeks. I expect that to continue. Huron 35 Thurston 27. EM

Anonymous said...

There are paid professionals on here. Crap, I'm out!

Stosento, if the current blog guy needs a hand or decides to dissolve the blog, I suggest he contact you. Your alright for a SMCC guy.

I expect Huron, Thurston game to go to the wire, sounds like 2 very evenly matched teams, if weather not too bad, I will stop in and watch this one. JLC too far.

JB

Anonymous said...

Huron really hasn't played anyone decent all year. Their only loss came at the hands of SMCC and that was a blowout. I really do not know what to expect out of them against this team. I watched the Huron/SMCC game and was expecting a lot more out of them. They have some good players, but have they really been tested? Everyone wants to make Riverview a powerhouse, but they were fakes. Continued success, Huron. Just don't get ahead of yourselves.

Chris Schultz said...

I think you are being disingenuous with that statement about Huron. Huron beat some solid teams. Riverview twice, Grosse Ile, Trenton, Airport and Milan. None of those games were gimmees.

Football is a game of match ups. Thurston and Huron match up well against each other. Either team could emerge victorious.

stosento said...

Chris has some good points. Huron has beat some good teams (Riverview, Grosse Ile, Trenton) and some decent teams (Airport, Milan). Chris has a much better shot at correctly predicting this game since he does know the match-up. I agree with 9:11am that Huron hasn't played any really powerful teams except SMCC, so it's acceptable to be apprehensive about how they'll do against a team that's had success.

I don't think anyone here is saying that Huron is going to win a state championship, but they've been performing consistently and beat a couple of playoff teams relatively comfortably. Huron does match up well with Thurston and it is pretty realistic to predict a win out of them.

NJC54 said...

Well, with SMCC playing on Saturday, I'm hoping to see a huge HL turnout for a home game at Huron. Should be tough but a win is more than possible for Huron... At this point it comes down to taking care of the ball. I think these kids learned a hard lesson on that one against SMCC, hopefully they shored it up and will be ready to cover the points in the cold.... Huron 27 Thurston 21.

Anonymous said...

I'm not trying to be disingenuous in my comments, just honest. Two wins from Riverview? Not impressed. Trenton was WAY overrated. So were Airport and Milan. Grosse Ile was the only half-way decent team. Your team is good, you just got blessed with a favorable playoff bracket. You won when you had to, and that's what matters. Good Luck!

Anonymous said...

It doesn't matter who you play, but you have to at least be in the game to have a chance to win it. Ask Divine Child, who beat Allen Park and shouldn't have even been in the game with them according to computer points. You have to be in the game to have a shot at it.

Chris Schultz said...

Riverview had a solid team, don't diminish that. Trenton played well in the Downriver League and won their first round game. Airport beat playoff qualifier Tecumseh, who just so happened to beat Thurston. Milan was in virtually every game and played a still alive Country Day team well.

Chris Schultz said...

I'm sorry I have to continue.....the league must be down if Huron only had one loss right? They must have had a lucky draw in the playoffs because they are still around right? It has to be....it's Huron.

How about you just admit that you can't believe Huron is actually 10-1 and done something right in football. They couldn't be any good. Maybe it's the fact that these kids have been playing organized football since the 1st grade. Maybe it's the fact that they are part of the bigger, faster stronger programs that Huron implemented 8 years ago in their high school. Maybe these kids are just talented, athletic, smart and committed. Maybe their hardwork has just paid off. Maybe it's the fact that Huron has a head coach that has been there a decade now and he has changed the culture at the school regarding football. Or maybe they just haven't beaten anyone who is any good.

I call it disingenuous, you call it just being honest. Maybe it's just ignorance.

Anonymous said...

I'm not disputing anything you said @ 2:06, this current Huron team is better than anything that the school has put on the field in decades, and I'm happy that you finally have a good program. It is great that there is another competitive team in the HL, and it's not just CC and Jefferson every year. I'm not ignorant. I've watched plenty of good teams. Teams that would hand any team in the HL their lunch. Like I said before, you won the games you were supposed to win. That's all that any team can ask. Could you have competed in Division 4, 5, or 6? I highly doubt it. Lucky draw? NO. Favorable Draw? YES.

stosento said...

Some FIRE out of Chris!!! I love it!! And he has a great point. There's always reasons to doubt the quality of a team. I think a lot of skepticism comes from the fact that this is their first District title ever...they're simply not proven and when they succeed, people aren't used to it and look for reasons to explain it.

I think this is a perfect storm for Huron this year. Everything for the program is coming together. Their league play is no mistake, their coaching is improving, and they're performing on the field. To say this team wouldn't get this far in Division 4, 5, or 6 are just dumb arguments. They're not in those divisions, why even talk about it? They're in division 3 and they're playing for a regional title. I do not think this is a one-time thing. Some teams fall (Milan, Airport) and others rise. Huron is on the rise.

Even if Huron beat a couple of huge powerhouse teams like EGR or OLSM, the same people would say the other schools were having a bad year or played badly. Wins speak for themselves. I'll agree that they have a favorable bracket compared to others, but they've still beat 4 playoff teams this year, one of them twice. Favorable, sure, but they're handling those teams quite well.

Anonymous said...

Huron did have the easiest of brackets. You must admit that.

Anonymous said...

Who cares who thinks they got a favorable draw. The fact the Huron League has 2 teams left is something we ALL should be proud of! I was fortunate enough to watch my grandson and the Milan run the last 2 years. He graduated and I still can't wait to read the blog on Friday night and see how the league shook out. Let's just root for OUR Huron League teams this weekend and see if we can make it to Ford Field! Good luck to both teams.

Anonymous said...

You must be an idiot and just blowing smoke if you JUST said "it is great that there competitive team in the Huron league besides CC and Jefferson every year."

This is how I know you're a disgruntled pissed at the world parent/player/uneducated blogger.... because you just said Jefferson was a contender in the league. Did you even watch a game this year? Did you see the 4 teams from the HL that went to the playoffs? Did you pay any mind to the teams that were at the bottom of the league? Or are you so egotistical and reluctant to say, Huron is a good team. You saying that one comment just explained that you know nothing of the league. Jefferson hasn't had a winning season since 2008 and that was a 5-4 season. Since then it's been 4-5, 1-8, and this year 2-7.... give credit when credit is due. Congratulate them and move on. The league isn't down, and no team is bad... you're just uneducated.

KC

Anonymous said...

Not uneducated, just a realist. Huron IS on the rise. So in all the years that Huron wasn't competing, CC and Jefferson didn't rule the roost. I'm talking about the last 30 years, not just 10. CC had their down time. Jefferson is going through their down time right now. At least they have some experience in the W column. They've won a hell of a lot more than Huron has. I AM proud that the Huron League had 4 teams in the playoffs. Huron DOES have a good team, FINALLY. The Monroe News basically said the same thing. You guys aren't used to winning yet. And yes, I did pay attention to the bottom teams in the HL. Huron is usually there. You even scheduled your football banquet too soon. Am I wrong? If you were used to so much success, the date would have been a bit later. I'm actually happy for you guys. You guys are like the Detroit Lions fans. Win one playoff game and you're buying Super Bowl tickets! Enjoy your success! YOU HAVE A GOOD TEAM!! Boy! You talk about the CC fans, you guys can't even take a compliment. I never said the league was down, you did. Oh, and good thing you guys didn't lose to that GOOD Flat Rock team this year.

Anonymous said...

For those who say Huron had a favorable draw i got news for you, Allen Park had a favorable draw and how did that workout? Truthfully i can't see how anybody can hate on Huron, they are such an easy team to root for. I still remember the days when everybody wanted to schedule Huron for homecoming cause it was an automatic win. My how times have changed. Hopefully Huron's "favorable draw" puts them in the semi finals. Keep making history Chiefs!!! EM

Anonymous said...

Don't hate on the bears, remember they played Huron tough.

Anonymous said...

Kick butt HURON !

Anonymous said...

Anon,

Where exactly was the compliment through your previous rebuttals? There wasn't.. unless you call saying "you have such a good team BUT... (INSERT CONTRADICTING STATEMENT HERE)". You say compliment and realistic; i say mad that Huron is having success. Keep your "compliment" sir. Huron has enough true blue fans that compliment them enough.

And what does scheduling a banquet have to do with anything? Its a celebration for finishing off another season of football... not a show boat parade. Good day tho.

KC

Anonymous said...

I'm sorry. Huron has the winningest football program on the face of the earth. They have defeated everyone in their path. Mountains crumble at the very mention of their name. They did NOT lose a single game this year, they just ran out of time.

Is that better?
Let me try again in simple English.

Huron has good team. Me happy for YOU. Team deserves much happiness and success.

The Huron football team is good, but you fans are freakin' delusional!

Anonymous said...

Anyone who says that ALL the teams in Hurons Region did not get a favorable draw are being disingenuous. All those teams got an easy draw. Whoever wins vs Thurston and huron will find out the next week what a tough draw feels like.

Chris Schultz said...

This is the comment from you that started it all. "Huron really hasn't played anyone decent all year. Their only loss came at the hands of SMCC and that was a blowout. I really do not know what to expect out of them against this team. I watched the Huron/SMCC game and was expecting a lot more out of them. They have some good players, but have they really been tested? Everyone wants to make Riverview a powerhouse, but they were fakes. Continued success, Huron. Just don't get ahead of yourselves.

I simply called you disingenuous, which I believe is true. Nobody is over hyping Huron. Everyone on here think it is going to be an evenly matched game. I picked Huron in the original post based on home field. You tried to discredit their 10-1 season, everyone responded with what they believe. No over hype, just facts based on a 10 win season thus far.

Anonymous said...

Redford Thurston (8-3) @ New Boston Huron (10-1): I can't believe one of these teams will be a state semifinalist. The winner better enjoy it while it lasts... HURON BY 1

copied from another site

Anonymous said...

Lighten up Alice...
I am enjoying the ride.

Who cares who had an easy bracket? Line them up and play.

Huron has played everyone that has lined up in front of them. They have risen to the challenge so far. Thurston - another test, should be a close game. Line them up and play.

So what happens if OLSM gets upset this weekend? Dewitt lost last week...it happens....Does that belittle anything this region has done? No, line them up and play.

Good Luck Huron...hold onto the ball...wrap up on tackles....be the deepest defender on the field....hit the big backs low...keep your emotions in check.. and STAY WARM..lol

Good Luck as well SMCC.

This is fun guys, relish in it.
My son is making memories, for both him and me.

MJ

Anonymous said...

And that's really what this is about at the end of the day. Even if Huron loses tonight, not one kid on that field has anything to be really sad about.... it's a game and they are one of only 64 11-man teams still playing in this state. I bet I know another 192 teams that made the playoffs anyway that would LOVE to be in their shoes this evening.

The kids need to breathe, look around and enjoy the moment, good bracket or lousy bracket, win or lose, its all gravy at this point for both teams. Have fun and revel in what it is...

And GO CHIEFS!!!

Anonymous said...

MJ

I totally agree Huron did not choose who they play the just play who is on the schedule. ....enjoying the ride NEVER want it end .....just remember boys these are memories that no one xan take away

Anonymous said...

Bring the blankies boys. Gonna be a cold one tonight.