Tuesday, October 11, 2016

Playoff Scenarios

DIII

***New Boston Huron (5-2)
Remaining games: Flat Rock, Romulus Summit.
The Chiefs have a shot at a home playoff game if they find themselves in a weaker district, but most likely will be on the road.
Possible playoff matchups: Chelsea, Romulus, Trenton, Allen Park

DIV

***Milan (6-1)
Remaining games: Airport, Ann Arbor Huron.
The Big Reds sit squarely in D4.  If they win out they would most likely have 2 home games and possibly a 3rd. 
Possible playoff matchups: Adrian, GI, River Rouge, Jefferson.

***Grosse Ile (6-1)
Remaining games: Riverview, Garden City.
The Red Devils, like Milan, are solidly slotted in D4. If they win out, they could possibly have 2 home playoff games.  Of course this all depends on who is in their district.
Possible playoff matchups: Adrian, River Rouge, Milan, Jefferson.

***Monroe Jefferson (3-4)
Remaining games: SMCC, Owosso.
The Bears have an outside chance at the playoffs.  They must win out and pray the playoff gods are in their favor.  I said before that quite a few 5 win teams will get in this year.  What hurts Jefferson is that if they win out, the combined records of the teams they beat would most likely be (9-36).  Not a ton of playoff points to be had there. 
Possible playoff matchups: Adrian, Rouge, Milan, GI.



DVI or DVII

***Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central (4-3)
Remaining games: Jefferson, Lansing Catholic Central.
The Falcons, if the playoffs started today, would be in D7.  They are the 2nd from the top team enrollment wise currently in that division.  Could this change? Absolutely.  They are on the bubble between 6 and 7.  SMCC needs 1 more victory to get them into the playoffs.  Being a Class C school and beating all Class B schools(17-29), would garner them enough points to get the bid.  If they were to finish 5-4, the teams they lost to would most likely have a combined record of (32-4). That would be worth another 3 Playoff points.  Of course they could just win out and not worry about all that. SMCC has a chance at a home playoff game.  District depending of course.
Possible playoff matchups: D7- Hudson, Clinton, Sand Creek, Delta. D-6- Manchester, Detroit DEPSA, Adrian Madison.


Playoff district and regional pairings.

When deciding who plays who, the MHSAA places teams into districts and regions based on geographical proximity alone.  No other factors come into play.  So it is possible and often times probable that one district could be much tougher than another.  For example, a possible opening round matchup for the potential (8-1) Red Devils, would be the #1 team in the state (D4) River Rouge.  That's not to say GI wont come out of there with a victory but its a tough opener none the less.  These things happen throughout the state.  One way to look at it is, you have to play them sooner or later, lets see if we can knock them out in game 1. 





38 comments:

Oldtimer said...

Great recap. Thanks for taking the time to put this together, truly enjoy your insight

#9 Dad said...

What gets me is the way they figure who is in D 3 or D 4. Enrollment can not be the only factor. If so, what are the cut off numbers, example, does 800 students put you in D 3? But 799 allows you to play D 4? Anyone know the method behind the madness? Cause I don't.

Anonymous said...

Safe bet is that rouge goes 3-0 over huron league teams in weeks 9-11

Gary Hauf said...

9Dad. 256 teams WILL qualify for the playoffs. Those 256 are divided into eight- 32 team divisions based on enrollment. As it sits now. Milan is solidly in D4 when you do the numbers of who will make it. Does that help?

#9 Dad said...

I understand that. But let's use Milan and GI as an example. Milan has more kids so they could play in 3 or 4. How could GI be a D4 team if they only have 500 kids? Seems like they would to D5. Just trying to make since of it. What is the enrollment number that separates D1 to D2, and so forth?

Chris Schultz said...

All the teams that make the playoffs (256) are split into 8 divisions based on enrollment. The top 32 are division 1, the next 32 division 2, the next 32 division 3 and so down through division 8.

Gary Hauf said...

because that's the way it works out. No other reason than that.
Right now D4 is 617-838. GI is 653

Chris Schultz said...

Lat year Milan slipped into D4 with 820 students. They played Cesar Chavez (682), Denby (790) and Country Day (685).

Gary Hauf said...

The numbers for the divisions aren't really set until after week 9. There is no set number for divisions. Classes yes.

Anonymous said...

I would love to see a potential SMCC Hudson matchup, two proud programs should be a good one.

Anonymous said...

They basically take all 256 teams put them in order of enrollment. The first 32 are D1. The next are D2 and so on. This will change every year because different teams qualify every year. After they make the Divisions based on enrollment they then put all the teams on a map. Then they try and group them so that every team has the shortest drives possible in a district. They do a great job explaining this all on snooze2you.com. This site also projects where people will be playing starting in week 5.
-BUBBLES-

Gary Hauf said...

Thank you. You are quite welcome.

Anonymous said...

Last year, Milan played at Country Day on a Saturday afternoon. Does Country Day play all their games on Saturday? Anyone know if and why they do this?

Anonymous said...

Am I mistaken or does D7 look tougher than D6?

Chris Schultz said...

No lights at DCD.

Anonymous said...

All that $ and no lights? Someone's getting rich, and it's not the kids.

Anonymous said...

Last year,when DCD hosted Milan in the Regional final, DCD squuzed the game in the middle of a massive lacrosse tournament. It was crazy. They have an artificial turf baseball field, two turf football fields and an indoor football/soccer facility and a massive weight room area.....and no lights on any of them. crazy!

Anonymous said...

I really wish GI and Milan could slip into D3. I would love to see how the top tier Huron league teams match up with top teams from the Downriver league. GI v Trenton, Milan v Allen Park.

OG Islander

#9 Dad said...

Yes they do. Their home games anyways, they want it to feel college like.

Chris Schultz said...

I mis-spoke. They do have lights there. We ran them in track last season. They have a beautiful facility. Unbelievable really. If I had the funding, I would consider sending my daughter were. Their academics are second to none and the athletic program is excellent.

Anonymous said...

I think it's like 28,000 a year to attend Country Day.

#9 Dad said...

I believe they would do better in D3 than D4.

Chris Schultz said...

$29,175 for the 2016/17 school year plus another $3,000 in fees that include uniforms, computers, etc.

There is an open house on Sunday October 23rd for those interested ;)

CoachTom48160 said...

I agree. When you visit DCD, you definitely see where the money goes. No one's hiding the cash in their pockets.

(OK, so they likely have *more* cash in their pockets, but the point is that they don't go cheap up there.)

Anonymous said...

How much to attend SMCC?

Anonymous said...

SMCC is around $10,000 or just a little over. Many get discounts and do not pay full amount. I believe that is gradually going away, that's why numbers are dropping. Riverview Gabriel Richard is $6500. But everybody pays full amount, no discounts, so they are able to afford their own facilities.

To each his own.

Anonymous said...

Feel bad for any Huron league team if they run in to Rouge..

Anonymous said...

Do you think Jack Giarmo would have won as consistently at a public school? The answer is no. Parochial schools belong in their own conference.

Gary Hauf said...

So a public state champ and a private state champ?

Gary Hauf said...

And your comment about Giarmo is plain silly. He will win wherever he goes.

Anonymous said...

No HL team wants to see River Rouge in playoffs.. beating teams like Chelsea whew scary!

Anonymous said...

7:32 Your continued crying is old.

Anonymous said...

I think Jack is a great coach, but I do not think he would win wherever he went.

I grew up going to catholic grade school and high school. I have come to know many public school parents and children. The work ethic, the listening to your coach, the giving 100% is not consistently there. Occasionally it is and with several players like that on one team, public schools periodically do well. As you will note, NO public school in our league has sustained a winning record for many years. They all have the occasional good teams. Huron is the closest team to consistently good. (Makes sense, Because I hear Jack is actually trying to get that job).

Reality is public school has to deal with the very poor kids, the kids who are parents already, the kids with substance abuse problems and the kids with anger management issues. Plus try to make these kids focus on sports. I don't think so. Jack, I'm sure would give many life lessons and do a world of good for many troubled public school kids, but have a successful football team would be a high mountain to climb.

SMCC and the catholic grade school I went to had very little of this. When a BAD EGG appeared, most often, they did not return the following school year.

Coaching is coaching, but you have to have players willing to do what you tell them.

With all these factors, that is why it is such a big deal when a public school in our league beats SMCC. Its not just another game, its a game where the kids with a rough life have risen up and defeated an elite program.

NO DOUBT, THAT WILL BE THE CASE THIS FRIDAY !!!

BEAR PRIDE !

Anonymous said...

No way you see Jack Coach in the Huron League again, unless he goes back to SMCC. I just can't see him on the visitors side of the field at Navarre.

rugby said...

Rouge is overrated and I believe GI and Milan will match up better than people think.

Gary Hauf said...

Don't be so sure.

CoachTom48160 said...

RR's schedule is suspect (although they did beat undefeated Chelsea on the field, only to have to forfeit the game after the fact), but I do believe that their QB is a legit challenge for any defense to contain.

Anonymous said...

Chris/ Gary didn't post my prior comments because it probably would hurt 8:44's feelings. So I'll just disagree with everything you state and point out your error that Huron is not the only team that is consistently good. They are the only team that has found ways to consistently lose. RECENTLY they have been decent, but still no league championship.