Monday, October 17, 2016

Playoff Scenarios

DIII

***New Boston Huron(5-3) Automatic qualifier with win
Remaining games: Romulus Summit
The Chiefs lost any chance of having a home playoff game with last week's loss.
Possible matchups: Trenton, Chelsea, Romulus Allen Park, Divine Child
Predicted matchup: @Allen Park


DIV

***Milan(7-1) Automatic qualifier
Remaining Games: Ann Arbor Huron
The Big Reds rebounded last Friday and are in good shape as we near the playoffs.
Possible matchups: Adrian, Jefferson, GI
Predicted matchup: Jefferson

***Grosse Ile(7-1) Automatic qualifier
Remaining games: Garden City
The Red Devils have a real good chance at a home game with a win on Friday.
Possible matchups: Adrian, Jefferson, Milan, River Rouge.
Predicted matchup: Adrian

***Monroe Jefferson(4-4) At large bid
Remaining games: Owosso
The Bear's playoff hopes got a huge boost with last week's victory. They will need another however.
Possible matchups: Grosse Ile, Milan, River Rouge.
Predicted matchup: Milan



DVI/VII

***Monroe SMCC(4-4) At large bid
Remaining games: Lansing CC
The Falcons lost a tough backyard brawl last week.  They will get another shot at the playoffs this week.
Possible matchups: Hudson, Sand Creek, Clinton, Delta - Manchester, DEPSA
See Chris' preview later on this week for predicted finish.

                                             ------------------------------------------

A little more about Jefferson and SMCC's chances of getting into the playoffs. 

Teams with 6 wins will automatically get in. However there wont be enough 6 win teams to fill out the requisite 256 needed.  Those remaining spots are filled with 5 win teams with the highest playoff point total. 

SMCC will have enough playoff points to get in if they get to 5.  No doubt about it.

In doing some research and calculations, I have Jefferson at approximately 51-52 playoff points at 5-4.  Looking back the last 2 years, 3 teams in DIV have made it in with less points.  Obviously that is a good sign and I would guess 51-52 points would hold up this year as well.

So, in my estimation, both SMCC and Jefferson are in "win and in" situations. 

This is the week that ALL Huron League teams should be rooting for each other.  The more wins, the more playoff points for those in the playoffs. 

Great time of the year.  It has been A LONG time since the league has had 5 teams in the playoffs.  I'm not sure it ever has.  Let's hope this is the year!



Follow me on twitter @wolvereen71

50 comments:

Anonymous said...

Who will airport JV be hosting?

Anonymous said...

You are a total rearend!!

Anonymous said...

I'm sure they have earned a bye...

Anonymous said...

Hey Gary, how much do you know about Lansing CC?

Anonymous said...

Nothing better than watching the High School playoffs around Thanksgiving. Would be sweet to see a Huron League team at Ford Field.

Gary Hauf said...

Lansing Catholic is an outstanding team and program coached under Jim Ahern.

They have made the playoffs 9 out of the last 10 years. Went to Ford field in 2011 and 2014 and lost in the semi's last year.

CMU's starting QB Cooper Rush played for the Cougars. Last year's QB, Tony Poljan, also plays at CMU. So they have had some big time talent there.

They love to toss the ball around and score a lot of points. Their only loss this year is to undefeated Portland by 1.

#9 Dad said...

Gary you either think River Rouge is moving to D3 or moving to another district, what are you thinking?
Nothing against either team, but I really would rather play GI again rather than Jefferson. I do believe Milan is the better team out of all but something tells me Jefferson has grown up a bit. Not that GI couldn't beat us either, they could. I just think Jefferson is playing better football right now. Your thoughts? Chris, any opinions?

Chris Schultz said...

Rouge has 751 students. They will be Division 4.

Gary Hauf said...

As Chris said Rouge is D4. If Jefferson doesn't make the playoffs, I think Rouge would then join the district. If Jefferson does make the playoffs then Rouge would most likely be pushed north with Detroit Country Day. If that's the case, that would mean a matchup between the 2 or 3 best teams in D4 in the 2nd round.

Gary Hauf said...

FYI, I have Milan and GI ranked probably somewhere around 9 and 10 in D4. Top teams in the division would include: Rouge, DCD, GRCC, Alma, Marysville, Hudsonville Unity, Benton Harbor.

Anonymous said...

When is the playoff selection show on State Champs?

Anonymous said...

As of right now Jefferson has 44 playoff points. Snooze does not have them in. Hoping that changes. All teams in Division 4 have at least 51 playoff points. They could be one of the last if not the last 5-4 team in out of all divisions. If should give us a better Ida when he does his favorites prediction the next few days

Gary Hauf said...

Jefferson will have 37 points off of their wins. They will get another 14-15 bonus points from those they played. They will end up about 51-52.

Gary Hauf said...

....That's after week 9.

Gary Hauf said...

Snooze didn't have them in because they were 3-4 lol. He wont have them in this week either at 4-4. When he does his predicted winners version, probably sometime Wednesday, I would then look for Jefferson to be in. Trust me here, they have a real shot to get in.

Anonymous said...

Milan matches up better vs. GI then Jefferson. Milan has struggled verse the power teams. GI more then likely wants to play a slower offense (Jefferson) who runs strictly power football, because that's the strength of there defense, rather then playing Milan

Anonymous said...

No one said they didn't have a real shot and no one was talking about their 3-4 record lol. As of his week 8 projections they are not in. I for one along with everyone in the league should want them in. What I'm saying is that if they do make it, they will most likely be o e of the last 2-3 teams in out of the 36 or so 5-4 teams that make it. Quite possibly the last team in

Anonymous said...

If all the favorites win this week.... Favorites being everyone Jefferson plays plus a for sure win against Owesso, Jefferson will end up with 50 points exactly. The only thing that might change that is Airport winning over Tecumseh or an SMCC upset that would give them and additional 8 pts if either were two win. Don't see that happening, but that's why are played. New Boston will beat Summt and Flat rock will beat Hazel Park. River Rouuge will kill Riverview. There pt total will be exactly 50 if these things come to fruition. Snooze will have the same thing I'm guessing as far as points. Will 50 points get them in? Just all depends I guess on what the 5-3 and 4-4 teams do this week.

Do you think 50 points gets them in?

Anonymous said...

I root for Country Day to get bounced early every year. Just something wrong with paying $30,000 per year to go to High School. Chalk it up as " poor boy" jealousy I guess. Lol!

Anonymous said...

Not sure why this tool keeps getting posted ripping on AP JV! Of course this rebuttal won't get posted like many responses to him! We'll see you next year when we have like 90% of our starters returning on varsity and 40 young men on the sidelines! We will DOMINATE next year!!! AIRPORT takes Huron league title next year!!!

Anonymous said...

Thanks for all the detail on the playoff situation. Good to know how things pan out.

Good Luck to Huron League teams this week. 5 in would be nice.

Anonymous said...

Snooze just put out his favorite picks and has them at 48.67. This can always change, but he's usually pretty close. I think the number will be exactly 50 after doing the math. It looks like they will be one of the last 3-4 teams in.

Anonymous said...

http://www.snooze2you.com/2016/mapetology.php?year=2016&week=8&division=4&view=1&mobile=0

Gary Hauf said...

-Monroe Jefferson-

If the favorites win

Ida- L bonus points = .778
GI- L bonus points = .778
Airport- W +64. bonus points = .889
Milan- L bonus points = .778
Riverview- W +80. bonus points = .1.778
Flat Rock- W +64. bonus points = 3.556
huron- L bonus points = .556
SMCC- W +48. bonus points = 3.556
Owosso W +80. bonus points = 0.00

64+80+64+48+80=336/9 = 37.333
bonus points = .778 + .889 + .778 + 1.778 + 3.556 + .556+3.556 = 11.891

37.333 + 11.891 = 49.224 Playoff points.

Jefferson would seem to need SMCC or Riverview or Airport to win. That would get them to over 50 points. Which I think is the mark.

For reference. Plainwell made it in last year with 50.444.
in 2014, Comstock park made it in with 50.111 and Harper Creek with 50.889. Jefferson will be very close with a win. As mentioned above, maybe the last team in or out.

As I said, Jefferson needs to root for all the teams they played to win.

CoachTom48160 said...

Thanks for the breakdown, Gary--especially with your last post on Jefferson's playoff points. I'm rooting for them as well as the other HL teams this week. Let's flood the brackets!

Gary Hauf said...

"Snooze just put out his favorite picks and has them at 48.67. This can always change, but he's usually pretty close. I think the number will be exactly 50 after doing the math. It looks like they will be one of the last 3-4 teams in."

Where do you see this? Snooze said he wont have the favorites win out until Wednesday night. I only see the week 8 projections.

Anonymous said...

searnfootballforum. All of the breakdowns are done here first by division. Then snooze/auldschool put them on the snooze2you site. If you click on the Michigan HS football forum and then go to the "pick the favorites" topic posted this morning, it has what the playoff points will be if all the favorites win. MJ he has at 48.67. Although this is a low number, it should get them in just barely. Milan and GI should stay away from Rouge and that would push Rouge north in the same district as Country Day. Still a long way to go.

Huron league Fan

Gary Hauf said...

I see Auldschool thinks Jefferson is in with a win. That's a good sign.

Anonymous said...

Don't forget, the two T teams Milan had trouble with, were both on the road. This time it's on their turf.

Anonymous said...

Gary I believe you get 8 and 1/2 points for beating a class A team so adding there 44.75 would put them at 53 points to be exact

Anonymous said...

I understand, the bad parent at the Huron game is actually OG Insider.

Anonymous said...

No it would not. Snooze did the favorites. They will not have more than 50 total points.

Gary Hauf said...

For beating a Class A school with zero wins you get 80/9= 8.8888888889

Anonymous said...

Yessir, try grandfather!

OG Islander

Anonymous said...

For what it's worth; Milan is ranked 10th in division 4 in the most recent associated press rankings.

Anonymous said...

Gary
For beating a Class A school you get 80 Playoff points. The number is added to the sum total of all the wins (80 for Class A, 65 for Class B and 45 for Class C,), divided by the total games your teams play, typically 9.
This gets a "Playoff point average for you season.
Then you get 8 points x wins of opponents you beat, divided by games they play and 1 point x wins of opponents you lost to divided by games they played. the Bonus points are summed and added to you season Playoffpoint average.
PTM.

Gary Hauf said...

That is correct. And that is what I did

Gary Hauf said...

Multiplier is 8 and divider is games played.

Gary Hauf said...

...and it's 80-64-48-32

Anonymous said...

If you take the multiplier and divide it with 8, then take the square root and subtract pie to 2nd power, you get SMCC not making it.

Anonymous said...

After 6 wins in the last three years, including consecutive 1 win seasons, you again claim that AP will dominate next year. THAT is why people keep posting and ripping AP!

Anonymous said...

Ok so instead of having a good positive attitude and saying we are winners let's just say we'll be happy to win 2 games next season. That's great motivation for a team. I'm positive no coach or parent in the league tells the kids they are not winners and can't win! These kids work there butts off everyday! Did you not read the great Milan parents and staffs posts? We are an upcoming team I promise you! So in part your comment is ignorant!!!!

CoachTom48160 said...

You might need to sit down for this, 7:05. Telling the kids to keep working hard and that results will follow is in fact different than coming onto the HLB to tell other adults humble things like:

"We will DOMINATE next year!!! AIRPORT takes Huron league title next year!!!"

If you can't tell the difference, then you'll never understand why Airport get ripped.

Anonymous said...

Why do you have to say anything at all? I don't see any other school proclaiming dominance next year or claiming the off-season league championship 43 weeks in advance. It's fine if you want to do such a thing but don't whine about getting ripped. You provide the fuel for us to make fun of AP. Take the fuel away, the fire goes out.

Anonymous said...

I agree totally on Airport comments. Quit bragging already. You ask for it.

A little bit of modesty could show some class.

I like that 9:54, that's pretty funny.


Actually, I do hope all the HL teams win this week and boost everybody's chances.
Appreciate all the breakdown on Jefferson. Doesn't get discussed too often.

BEAR FAN.

Anonymous said...

That's it. Let it out. It's OK. I know it's hard to get beat by a Div 6 team most of the time.

Gary Hauf said...

Looks like Snooze comes to the blog to get his playoff predictions for the Huron League.

Huron @Allen Park
Jefferson @milan
Adrian @GI

Looks familiar

Anonymous said...

AP fan here. I would be very satisfied with a 4 to 5 win season next year. Have to start building program back up. All programs go through down years, and we are going through ours now, I don't like to see other AP fans post things like "dominating next year" either. Appreciate the enthusiasm and confidence, but have to be realistic and set expectations much lower. Let's just try to get back on track and build a program back up, like we were from "99" through "2012". Good luck to the rest of the league this last week and for those moving on the following week, kick some butt!

Anonymous said...

I have to agree with 9:59 here.To say we will dominate is a bit much. A 5 win season would be great. If we could possibly make it into the playoffs would be excellent. Good luck to all HL teams in the playoffs. Show em how tuff we are. RB

Anonymous said...

Well said 9:59. At least some Airport people are realistic. The thing is the league will be tough again next year. And with a possibility of a coaching change at Airport you can't expect to have great results. A lot will be crammed in over the summer for these kids to learn.